Return-Path: Delivered-To: alvarochf@traceseis.com Received: from cs510.bluehost.com by cs510.bluehost.com with LMTP id EEErBnyOc2lSTgAAWiBQxw (envelope-from ) for ; Fri, 23 Jan 2026 08:06:36 -0700 Return-path: Envelope-to: alvarochf@traceseis.com Delivery-date: Fri, 23 Jan 2026 08:06:36 -0700 Received: from v545.v5375b7fa.use4.send.mailgun.net ([159.112.244.45]:56632) by cs510.bluehost.com with esmtps (TLS1.2) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 (Exim 4.98.2) (envelope-from ) id 1vjIk7-00000000APL-3VD6 for alvarochf@traceseis.com; Fri, 23 Jan 2026 08:06:36 -0700 DKIM-Signature: a=rsa-sha256; v=1; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=mg-d0.substack.com; q=dns/txt; s=mailo; t=1769180779; x=1769187979; h=List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe: List-Post: List-Id: List-Archive: List-Owner: Reply-To: In-Reply-To: References: Sender: Sender: Date: Message-Id: To: To: From: From: Subject: Subject: Content-Type: Mime-Version; bh=+k4w0NhnN4lEfrbBXj6CTZLTVoHS5117fxgYjf/oBl4=; b=ZjWtbeLPhCdXs5CndTbU5JlJVARnkhJu8An0BDFQb8qrVQrkwdeKvgu/OWIVLQLZk8InlcbFZsY4hATq8AANampO5/zUw2TrKQw8qSu9SvJMSY32o+lZNLhIG/QAQ92uukKBu2UGDAyIO2SshduLeW5jhgx5HDlSd2tgc9p6O8Q= X-Mailgun-Sid: WyIyYjhlZSIsImFsdmFyb2NoZkB0cmFjZXNlaXMuY29tIiwiNjNhZjVkIl0= Received: by ba8b0e7fc94462a2dd26ce043b0bdb165a1ba9c86ac2abc20cace9d965008560 with HTTP id 69738e64b052365a61f600c1; Fri, 23 Jan 2026 15:06:11 GMT X-Mailgun-Sending-Ip: 159.112.244.45 X-Mailgun-Batch-Id: 69738e63a36e64450f040f55 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="766ce1a4d66f103d67da9acc3d8f434ab09c9cc01aecfebfd1ad4acc8294" Subject: The Model and the Tree From: Cosmos Institute To: alvarochf@traceseis.com X-Mailgun-Tag: post X-Mailgun-Track-Clicks: false Message-Id: <20260123150347.3.58eb9b57452332fa@mg-d0.substack.com> Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2026 15:03:47 +0000 Feedback-Id: post-185531276:cat-post:pub-2225794:substack Sender: Cosmos Institute References: In-Reply-To: Reply-To: Cosmos Institute List-Owner: List-Url: List-Archive: List-Id: List-Post: List-Unsubscribe: List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click X-Mailgun-Variables: {"category": "post", "email_generated_at": "1769180769668", "is_freemail": "true", "post_audience": "everyone", "post_id": "185531276", "post_type": "newsletter", "pub_community_enabled": "true", "publication_id": "2225794", "subdomain": "cosmosinstitute", "user_id": "347258985"} --766ce1a4d66f103d67da9acc3d8f434ab09c9cc01aecfebfd1ad4acc8294 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable View this post on the web at https://blog.cosmos-institute.org/p/the-model-= and-the-tree There are two things that I rarely take off: my wedding ring and my Garmin = watch. The former stays on because it seldom crosses my mind to remove it. = To tell the truth, I=E2=80=99m not even sure I could take it off without th= e right combination of soapy water, elbow grease, and patience. The latter,= the Garmin, stays put because I have a regrettable obsession with bodily m= etrics. I like to know my heart rate, stress levels, and especially the sta= te of my body battery (a wildly inaccurate read about how much fatigue I ou= ght to be feeling at any given moment). I=E2=80=99m not one of those life-hacking optimization types, but I wear th= e watch all the same. It helps me track runs and workouts, which I review e= very day or two when I lack enthusiasm for another trip to the gym. People = often tell me my preoccupation with these figures probably makes me more st= ressed. They might be right. Nonetheless, I keep using it because I worry t= hat without constantly reviewing breaths-per-minute or VO2 max I=E2=80=99d = be tempted to call time on this wellness thing. At least in my imagination, fitness =E2=80=93 and so Garmin =E2=80=93 is a = part of my personal quest for eudaimonia (usually translated as =E2=80=98fl= ourishing=E2=80=99 or =E2=80=98happiness=E2=80=99). Eudaimonia is less a fe= eling or a state than the activity of living in accordance with virtue. I t= hink that fitness helps me become someone who=E2=80=99s disciplined and fai= rly healthy, and that=E2=80=99s the kind of person I want to be. In this li= ght, the question that my smartwatch poses is an uncomfortable one: can flo= urishing be optimized for or must it be cultivated from within? Garmin=E2=80=99s algorithms are neither sophisticated nor totalizing. They = stay in their lane and have a rather narrow set of powers of suggestion. Th= ey don=E2=80=99t tell me how to exercise anymore than a pencil tells me wha= t to write. Others, like recommender systems or large language models, aren= =E2=80=99t so reserved. They suggest where to go, what to have for breakfas= t, what to watch on TV, and even how to broach a difficult subject with som= eone we care about. At the limit, these systems may make all of our decisio= ns for us in a scenario we call =E2=80=9Cautocomplete for life [ https://su= bstack.com/redirect/9a55b8e9-a0ce-4781-ab48-844da6ae6d18?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeX= F4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ].=E2=80=9D The Wood from the Trees In On Liberty Mill tells us something about the human condition: =E2=80=9CH= uman nature is not a machine to be built after a model, and set to do exact= ly the work prescribed for it, but a tree, which requires to grow and devel= op itself on all sides, according to the tendency of the inward forces whic= h make it a living thing.=E2=80=9D For Mill, human flourishing is developme= ntal. It cannot be achieved through external optimization because the proce= ss of growth is essential for the good life. This is why he describes human= nature as a tree. The metaphor captures the idea that we grow from latent = capacities and inclinations that must be discovered and shaped through self= -directed action. Those tendencies suggest paths, but they require autonomy= to be actualized. In the Nicomachean Ethics, Aristotle tells us that flourishing flows from v= irtue and virtue through habituation. Rather than asking =E2=80=9Cwhat shou= ld I do?=E2=80=9D he encourages us to ask =E2=80=9Cwhat kind of person shou= ld I become?=E2=80=9D Grounded in the way people act in the real world, Ari= stotle=E2=80=99s approach to ethical life focuses on character development = over rule-following or achieving the greatest good for as many people as po= ssible. His =E2=80=9Cgolden mean=E2=80=9D (finding virtue by balancing extr= emes) requires phronesis or practical wisdom, the capacity to discern the r= ight action in particular circumstances developed only through living in th= e world. For both Mill and Aristotle, human flourishing is a journey we make every d= ay. Try as we might, there are no shortcuts we can take. The activity of li= ving a self-directed life can never be automated because it is constitutive= of what it means to flourish in the first place. A life in which all the r= ight choices were made for you might be pleasant, even enviable, but it wou= ld not be yours in the sense that matters. This belief, that flourishing ca= nnot be optimized from the outside, is based on three separate but related = ideas: (1) flourishing is a process of being; (2) it requires careful self-= authorship; and (3) it must be maintained solely from within. An optimized = outcome can simulate contentment, but it cannot substitute for active exerc= ise or resilient capacities. Go Forth and Optimize Machine learning systems are trained by optimizing a loss function, but in = deployment most function as pattern-completion engines rather than goal-dir= ected agents. When these systems engage humans, they typically optimize for= an external objective (e.g. engagement, throughput, or compliance) and tre= at the user as the site of optimization rather than its author. Even if the= objective was human flourishing, we would remain the patient of optimizati= on rather than its architect. The technical apparatus assumes that a desira= ble end-point can be specified in advance so that the system constructs out= comes rather than growing them. That is unproblematic for the most part =E2= =80=93 it=E2=80=99s just how the technology functions =E2=80=93 but it begi= ns to surface some curious problems when it comes into contact with our eff= orts to live deliberately. You can see this dynamic in play with recommender systems that suggest what= you want before you have had a chance to reflect on it. These systems lear= n from aggregate behavior to predict and shape individual choices, like sug= gesting the optimal route or by pushing you towards television shows or mus= ic that =E2=80=9Csomeone like you=E2=80=9D ought to like. A kind of overfit= ting to past behavior can restrict users to previously expressed interests = [ https://substack.com/redirect/22c8993a-3675-488d-9790-67a718ecfe9d?j=3Dey= J1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ], generating= recommendations that whittle away the variety of options needed to recogni= ze the opportunity costs of choice. Core to this process is the =E2=80=9Cnudge=E2=80=9D wherein the presentatio= n of choices is shaped by an outside actor. Unlike earlier static nudges (s= uch as placing healthy food at eye level), AI-driven nudges operate continu= ously and adaptively. Given enough scale, this transforms what was once sof= t paternalism into something closer to soft totalitarianism as fine-grained= personalization makes interventions harder to collectively resist. The mor= e criteria are centrally set, the greater the attack surface for those who = would exploit them, and the more these systems inhibit the decentralized ad= aptive learning [ https://substack.com/redirect/eaedd973-81da-4f97-94db-75c= fe95cbf55?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-Hy= oA ] through which individuals and societies discover what works. When the = environment is engineered to produce predictable choices, the capacity to e= xercise choice becomes harder to sustain. A common defense [ https://substack.com/redirect/e1c0574c-755f-44a1-aba9-04= dbbbefe9cd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-H= yoA ] of nudges holds that they preserve freedom of choice while improving = outcomes for society as a whole. Proponents suggest that nudges influence b= ehavior mostly for our benefit, and that they are easy to avoid if we put o= ur mind to it. If people can always choose otherwise, their autonomy is not= compromised. The rub is that true autonomy deals with at least both first-= order choices (I want a cigarette) and second-order reflection on those cho= ices (I wish I could stop smoking). Nudges often bypass reflection =E2=80= =93 how many of us are content with taking the first movie recommendation w= e see? =E2=80=93 preserving formal freedom of choice while undermining the = authorship that makes them our own. Defenders of nudges might say something= like =E2=80=9Cif someone=E2=80=99s going to unthinkingly pick the first mo= vie, it might as well be a good one.=E2=80=9D But this line of thinking doe= sn=E2=80=99t engage with the fact that nudges make deliberation harder in t= he first place. When we engage in critical reflection, we weigh alternative= s and formulate our own reasons about what to do. That process is harder to= initiate when a =E2=80=9Cgood enough=E2=80=9D option is presented to us th= at bypasses the need for deliberation. =20 More than that, the idea that nudges are easy to avoid fails given enough a= ltitude. Even granting that individual nudges may be possible to avoid, lik= e walking past that salad bar and opting for a cheeseburger, an ambient eco= logy of personalized nudges is not. This gets at one of the curious aspects= of autonomy: for such a personal thing, it depends on social life and the = opportunities to contest and compare it brings with it. Autonomy fails when= exit is nominal or when commitments become irreversible. Of course all cho= ices exist within a constellation of potential options, but it is possible = in principle to structure those potentialities through systems that keep in= quiry distributed rather than centrally engineered. Another critique of the developmental view of human nature (that is, Mill= =E2=80=99s tree) suggests that the problem is not optimization per se but p= oorly specified objectives. If we could align AI systems with genuine human= goods, including autonomy, then optimization might in principle be made co= mpatible with human flourishing. One influential proposal, associated with = AI researcher Stuart Russell, introduces a simple framework based on three = related principles: (1) the AI=E2=80=99s only objective is to maximize the = realization of human values; (2) the AI is initially uncertain what those v= alues are; and (3) human behavior is the primary source of information abou= t values. But if flourishing really is an activity rather than a state, then it may n= ot be the kind of thing that can be maximized by an external agent. Like ha= ppiness in Aristotle=E2=80=99s account, it might simply be a good that must= be exercised from within. In practical terms, learning values from behavio= r must grapple with its own circularity. If current behavior reflects prefe= rences already shaped by prior optimization, the system is learning from wa= nts that we haven=E2=80=99t fully endorsed. More fundamentally, observed behavior may be the wrong place to look. Condu= ct reveals who we have been, not who we are trying to be. The developmental= view suggests that we are always undergoing growth, and the distance betwe= en our actions and our aspirations is where character development takes pla= ce. No amount of behavioral data, however rich, can capture what we have no= t yet become. That said, Russell=E2=80=99s humility principle points toward= something important. It reminds us that systems that surface uncertainty a= nd return judgment to the user are more autonomy-preserving than those that= do not. Another problem deals with adequately specifying preferences for AI systems= in line with the developmental view. Current models focus on revealed pref= erences (what we do) in service of a goal that they set (maximize time on p= latform in the case of recommendation engines or assist in a =E2=80=9Chelpf= ul, honest, and harmless [ https://substack.com/redirect/423aad80-0463-4aee= -bdad-d497477d8de2?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGo= Fv6eWS-HyoA ]=E2=80=9D manner for language models). Simply telling the syst= em what you want to want isn=E2=80=99t enough; these stated preferences may= not necessarily reflect the kind of person you are trying to be. Deeper ap= proaches to character development will be needed for systems that help us r= ealize our potential. =20 A final objection to the developmental reading of human nature might stress= that all technology assists human action. Writing supports memory and calc= ulators aid arithmetic (though overreliance can enfeeble both). If external= assistance inherently undermines autonomy, shouldn=E2=80=99t we be wary of= tools altogether? But the difference between AI and other technologies tur= ns on whether assistance extends the agent=E2=80=99s deliberation or replac= es it. A map or pencil extends my autonomy, a chatbot that makes decisions = for me does not. The Constant Gardener Am I using the system to pursue ends I have reflectively endorsed within, o= r is the system shaping my ends from without? Even when you supply preferen= ces, a system must decide how act on them according to its own constitution= [ https://substack.com/redirect/d24e1263-41a6-4891-b170-35d500701364?j=3De= yJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ]. If we hav= e little ability to override those rules, well-meaning efforts at governanc= e may inadvertently prevent systems from supporting our personal quests for= eudaimonia. Consider a recommendation system that learns my preferences fr= om behavior and serves content to maximize engagement. The system optimizes= for my revealed preferences. But there=E2=80=99s no reason a recommender s= ystem needs to operate this way. It=E2=80=99s easy enough to build a system= that allows users to think carefully about the type of person they would l= ike to become by using the same technology. The former might serve you real= ity TV because you watched a cooking show; the latter might populate your f= eed with guides for cooking dishes you=E2=80=99ve always wanted to make. This is better, but even this kind of second order endorsement is insuffici= ent. If you tell a system the kind of things you want to be interested in, = then you may find that the system quickly optimises for them in a way that = does little to help you grow as a person. Watching more arthouse cinema and= fewer Netflix originals has little bearing on the type of life you want to= live. Instead, systems ought to deal with the stuff that matters. Personal= agents, for example, could be designed to sift interests from from charact= er development. They could help us think about who we want to become rather= than engineering the outcomes we think we want. In practice, that might mean an AI assistant that makes its influence legib= le. Rather than covertly curating your information environment, a character= -supporting agent might show you the paths not taken. It might introduce th= e unfamiliar because growth requires encounters beyond the experiences you= =E2=80=99ve already had. At minimum, such systems should make exit realisti= c through portability and contestability and ensure we sign off any changes= that may influence our higher order commitments. Rather than simply checki= ng whether your goals have changed, they could surface tensions between you= r commitments to help you live more deliberately.=20 Optimizing flourishing from the outside is a non-starter because flourishin= g is active and authored. But if the locus of deliberation remains with us,= perhaps AI can help us live a little more wisely. 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a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img, .typography.editor .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-= img, .typography .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img, .typography.editor .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img { max-height: 180px; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { .typography .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-descrip= tion, .typography.editor .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-= description, .typography .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-description, .typography.editor .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-descript= ion { display: none; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .typography .markup .apple-podcast-container, .typography.editor .markup .apple-podcast-container { width: unset; } } @media (max-width: 420px) { .typography .markup .install-substack-app-embed img.install-substack-app-= embed-img, .typography.editor .markup .install-substack-app-embed img.install-substa= ck-app-embed-img { margin: 0 auto 16px auto; } } @media (max-width: 420px) { .typography .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-app-emb= ed-text, .typography.editor .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-= app-embed-text { margin: 0 0 12px 0; max-width: 100%; width: auto; text-align: center; } } @media (max-width: 420px) { .typography .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-app-emb= ed-link, .typography.editor .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-= app-embed-link { display: flex; justify-content: center; } } @media screen and (min-width: 481px) { .share-button-container { height: 38px; } } @media screen and (min-width: 481px) { .share-button-container a.comment { height: 38px; line-height: 38px; padding-right: 10px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .share-button-container .separator { display: block; margin: 0; height: 8px; border-left: none; } } @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .share-button-container a.share.first img { padding-left: 0; } } @media screen and (min-width: 481px) { .share-button-container a.mobile { display: none !important; } } @media screen and (min-width: 541px) { .settings-add-pub-modal-wrapper .container .add-recommending-pub-modal-co= ntainer { padding: 36px; height: 680px; } } @media screen and (min-width: 541px) { .settings-add-pub-modal-wrapper .container .add-recommending-pub-modal-co= ntainer .footer { position: absolute; bottom: 36px; margin: 0px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .header-anchor-parent { display: none; } } @media screen and (max-width: 768px) { .post { padding: 16px 0 0 0; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post .post-header .post-label { margin-top: 8px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post .post-header .meta-author-wrap.alternative-meta .meta-right-column = =2Epost-meta { margin-top: 6px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post .footer-facepile-container { height: 64px; padding: 0 16px; display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: flex-start; width: 100%; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post .post-footer.use-separators { justify-content: center; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post .post-footer.next-prev { height: 64px; justify-content: space-between; box-sizing: border-box; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-table { display: block; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-table-row { display: flex; flex-direction: row; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-userhead-cell, .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-body-cell { display: block; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-body-cell { flex-grow: 1; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-body-table { display: block; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-body-table-row { display: block; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-copy-cell, .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-controls-cell { display: block; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-copy-cell { margin: 0 0 16px 0; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-controls-cell { width: auto; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-controls { margin: auto; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-controls .button.primary { width: 100%; } .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-text { font-size: 14px; } } @media screen and (min-width: 768px) { .post-silhouette { padding: 32px 0; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-title { margin-top: 10.44225025px; height: 120px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-meta { width: 75%; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-meta.with-byline-image { margin: 20px 0; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .use-theme-bg .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item, .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item { padding-right: 16px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 370px) { .use-theme-bg .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item, .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item { font-size: 14px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .use-theme-bg .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item.guest-author-pu= blication, .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item.guest-author-publication { display: none; } } @media screen and (max-width: 370px) { .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button { height: 36px !important; /* important to override in-line height style on emails */ } .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button .meta-button-label { display: none; } .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button > svg { margin-right: 0; } } @media screen and (max-width: 370px) { .post-meta .post-meta-item { font-size: 12px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post .floating-subscribe-button { bottom: 20px; right: 20px; } } @media (max-width: 1024px) { body .pullquote-align-left, body .pullquote-align-right, body .pullquote-align-wide, body .pullquote-align-center { float: none; margin: 0 auto; width: 100%; max-width: 100%; } } @media all and (-ms-high-contrast: none), (-ms-high-contrast: active) { body .markup table.image-wrapper img, body .markup table.kindle-wrapper img { max-width: 550px; } } @media (min-width: 1024px) { body:not(:has(#toc)) .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-off= set-left) { margin-left: var(--image-offset-margin); } body:not(:has(#toc)) .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-off= set-right) { margin-right: var(--image-offset-margin); } } @media (min-width: 1300px) { body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-offset-left) { margin-left: var(--image-offset-margin); } body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-offset-right) { margin-right: var(--image-offset-margin); } } @media (max-width: 1024px) { body { /* Disable offset on mobile/tablet */ } body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-left), body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-right) { float: none; margin: 1em auto; max-width: 100%; width: auto; padding: 0; } body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-left.thefp), body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-right.thefp) = { margin: 1em auto; } body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-offset-left), body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-offset-right) { margin: 1em auto; } body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-left) .image2= -inset, body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-right) .image= 2-inset { display: block; justify-content: initial; } } @media (max-width: 768px) { body .markup div.sponsorship-campaign-embed { margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px; } body .markup div.sponsorship-campaign-embed:first-child { margin-top: 0px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { body .markup div.youtube-overlay, body .markup div.vimeo-overlay { display: none !important; } } @media screen and (max-width: 370px) { body .markup div.tiktok-wrap { width: calc(95vw - 32px); height: calc((95vw - 32px - 2px) / 0.485714); } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { body .markup div.embedded-publication-wrap .embedded-publication.show-sub= scribe { padding: 24px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subsc= ribe, body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap-editor .subscription-widget.sho= w-subscribe, body .markup div.captioned-button-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subscrib= e { padding: 0px 24px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subsc= ribe .subscription-widget-subscribe .button, body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap-editor .subscription-widget.sho= w-subscribe .subscription-widget-subscribe .button, body .markup div.captioned-button-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subscrib= e .subscription-widget-subscribe .button { padding: 10px 12px; min-width: 110px; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { body .markup .twitter-embed, body .markup .tweet { padding: 12px; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-text, body .markup .tweet .tweet-text { font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-photos-container.two, body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.two, body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-photos-container.three, body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.three, body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-photos-container.four, body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.four { height: 200px; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { body .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img, body .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img { max-height: 180px; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { body .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-description, body .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-description { display: none; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { body .markup .apple-podcast-container { width: unset; } } @media (max-width: 420px) { body .markup .install-substack-app-embed img.install-substack-app-embed-i= mg { margin: 0 auto 16px auto; } } @media (max-width: 420px) { body .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-app-embed-text= { margin: 0 0 12px 0; max-width: 100%; width: auto; text-align: center; } } @media (max-width: 420px) { body .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-app-embed-link= { display: flex; justify-content: center; } } @media screen and (min-width: 500px) { body .header a.logo { width: 42px; height: 42px; border-radius: 12px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 420px) { body .subscription-receipt table:first-of-type .subscription-amount .subs= cription-discount { width: 72px !important; } } @media screen and (min-width: 481px) { body .share-button-container { height: auto; } } @media screen and (max-width: 480px) { body .share-button-container .separator { display: block !important; margin: 0 !important; height: 8px !important; border-left: none !important; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .digest .item .post-meta-item.audience { display: none; } } @media screen and (min-width: 500px) { .digest-publication .logo img { width: 42px; height: 42px; border-radius: 8px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .comments-page .container .comment-list .collapsed-reply { margin-left: calc(10 + 32px - 24px); } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .comment > .comment-list { padding-left: 24px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .finish-magic-login-modal .modal-content .container { padding: 24px 0; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { .reader2-text-b3 { line-height: 24px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .reader2-text-h4 { line-height: 24px; } } @media screen and (min-width: 541px) { .user-profile-modal { padding-left: 12px; padding-right: 12px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .subscribe-widget form.form .sideBySideWrap button.rightButton { padding: 10px 12px; } } @media screen and (min-width: 541px) { .pub-icon:hover .logo-hover, .feed-item-icon:hover .logo-hover { display: block; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .post-ufi.single-full-width-button .post-ufi-button-wrapper { width: 100%; padding: 16px; } .post-ufi.single-full-width-button .post-ufi-button-wrapper:empty { display: none; } .post-ufi.single-full-width-button .post-ufi-button { width: 100%; justify-content: center; } } @media screen and (max-width: 768px) { .file-embed-wrapper { padding: 0; } } @media screen and (max-width: 768px) { .file-embed-wrapper-editor { padding: 0; } } @media screen and (max-width: 768px) { .file-embed-wrapper-editor:active { padding: 0; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 650px) { .file-embed-button.wide, .file-embed-error-button.wide { display: none; } } @media only screen and (min-width: 630px) { .file-embed-button.narrow, .file-embed-error-button.narrow { display: none; } } @media screen and (min-width: 541px) { .audio-player-wrapper .audio-player { min-width: 500px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .audio-player-wrapper .audio-player .audio-player-progress { border-left-width: 16px; border-right-width: 16px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .audio-player-wrapper .audio-player .audio-player-progress .audio-player-= progress-bar .audio-player-progress-bar-popup { top: -54px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-progress { border-left-width: 16px; border-right-width: 16px; } } @media screen and (max-width: 650px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-progress .audio-p= layer-progress-bar .audio-player-progress-bar-popup { top: -54px; } } @media (min-width: 250px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player { padding: 32px; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group { display: flex; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button:last-of-type= { display: block; } } @media (min-width: 300px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group { display: block; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button:first-of-typ= e { display: block; } } @media (min-width: 350px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-substack-logo { display: block; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-title { margin-top: 16px; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai= ner { padding-top: 15%; width: 15%; display: block; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button:first-of-typ= e { display: block; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-substack-logo { display: block; } } @media (min-width: 350px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai= ner { padding-top: 25%; width: 25%; display: block; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group { display: flex; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button:first-of-typ= e { display: block; } } @media (min-width: 400px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai= ner { padding-top: 40%; width: 40%; } } @media (max-width: 400px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group { margin-top: 12px; } .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button { font-size: 13px; padding: 6px 12px; height: auto; margin-top: 10px; } } @media (min-width: 600px) { .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai= ner { padding-top: 55%; width: 55%; } } @media (max-width: 650px) { .poll-editor-modal { min-width: calc(100% - 20px); } } @media (max-width: 750px) { .poll-embed .poll-anchor-target .poll-anchor-copy-button { left: 8px; top: 45px; } }</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;--im= age-offset-margin: -120px;"><img src=3D"https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?= token=3DeyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwMTIzMTUwMzQ3LjMuNThlYjliNTc0NTIzMzJmYUBtZy1kMC5zdWJ= zdGFjay5jb20-IiwidSI6MzQ3MjU4OTg1LCJyIjoiYWx2YXJvY2hmQHRyYWNlc2Vpcy5jb20iLC= JkIjoibWctZDAuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tIiwicCI6MTg1NTMxMjc2LCJ0IjoibmV3c2xldHRlciIsI= mEiOiJldmVyeW9uZSIsInMiOjIyMjU3OTQsImMiOiJwb3N0IiwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwicG9zaXRpb24i= OiJ0b3AiLCJpYXQiOjE3NjkxODA3NjksImV4cCI6MTc3MTc3Mjc2OSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJ= zdWIiOiJlbyJ9.-k22VY5X9GAf8X-XrIHHmxJpxkggaMmpty5W4Y7Hlxs" alt=3D"" width= =3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1px !important;width:1px != important;border-width:0 !important;margin-top:0 !important;margin-bottom:0= !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !important;padding-top:= 0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-right:0 !important;padding= -left:0 !important;"/><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:none;font-siz= e:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;= overflow:hidden;">Can happiness be optimized?</div><div class=3D"preview" s= tyle=3D"display:none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height= :0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">͏     ­= ͏     ­͏     ­͏   ̳= 9; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &nb= sp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­&= #847;     ­͏     ­͏    = ; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &nbs= p;   ­͏     ­͏     ­&#= 847;     ­͏     ­͏    = ­͏     ­͏     ­͏  = ;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= 47;     ­͏     ­͏     = ­͏     ­͏     ­͏  =   ­͏     ­͏     ­T= 7;     ­͏     ­͏     &= #173;͏     ­͏     ­͏   =   ­͏     ­͏     ­͏= ;     ­͏     ­͏     &#= 173;͏     ­͏     ­͏   &= #8199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏=     ­͏     ­͏     = 73;͏     ­͏     ­͏   &#= 8199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ =     ­͏     ­͏     = 3;͏     ­͏     ­͏   = 199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &= nbsp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= ;͏     ­͏     ­͏   Q= 99; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &n= bsp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= ͏     ­͏     ­͏   ̳= 9; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &nb= sp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­&= #847;     ­͏     ­͏    = ; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &nbs= p;   ­͏     ­͏     ­&#= 847;     ­͏     ­͏    = ­͏     ­͏     ­͏  = ;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= 47;     ­͏     ­͏     = ­͏     ­͏     ­͏  =   ­͏     ­͏     ­T= 7;     ­͏     ­͏     &= #173;͏     ­͏     ­͏   =   ­͏     ­͏     ­͏= ;     ­͏     ­͏     &#= 173;͏     ­͏     ­͏   &= #8199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏=     ­͏     ­͏     = 73;͏     ­͏     ­͏   &#= 8199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ =     ­͏     ­͏     = 3;͏     ­͏     ­͏   = 199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &= nbsp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= ;͏     ­͏     ­͏   Q= 99; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &n= bsp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= ͏     ­͏     ­͏   ̳= 9; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &nb= sp;   ­͏     ­͏     ­&= #847;     ­͏     ­͏    = ; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏ &nbs= p;   ­͏     ­͏     ­&#= 847;     ­͏     ­͏    = ­͏     ­͏     ­͏  = ;   ­͏     ­͏     ­= 47;     ­͏     ­͏     = ­͏     ­͏     ­͏  =   ­͏     ­͏     ­T= 7;     ­͏     ­͏     &= #173;͏     ­͏     ­͏   =   ­͏     ­͏     ­͏= ;     ­͏     ­͏     &#= 173;͏     ­͏     ­͏   &= #8199; ­͏     ­͏     ­͏=     ­</div><table class=3D"email-body-container" role=3D"p= resentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0= "><tbody><tr><td></td><td class=3D"content" width=3D"550"></td><td></td></t= r><tr><td></td><td class=3D"content" width=3D"550" align=3D"left"><div styl= e=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;max-width: 550px;width: 100%;margin:= 0 auto;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"1= 00%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td align= =3D"right" style=3D"height:20px;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"aut= o" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D= "vertical-align:middle;"><span class=3D"pencraft pc-reset reset-IxiVJZ tw-f= ont-body tw-text-ssm tw-text-substack-secondary" style=3D"font-family: SF P= ro Text, -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, Inter, Segoe UI, Rob= oto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe= UI 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/substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D2225794&post_id=3D185531276&ut= m_source=3Dpost-email-title&utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dtr= ue&r=3D5qqyqx&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozNDcyNTg5ODUsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE4NTUzMTI3N= iwiaWF0IjoxNzY5MTgwNzY5LCJleHAiOjE3NzE3NzI3NjksImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yMjI1Nzk0Iiwi= c3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.za2WMHtQ8zOhq-si2w2myz6rQfTHbcQf4R05AHv96sA" s= tyle=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: none;">The Model and the Tree= </a></h1><h3 class=3D"subtitle subtitle-HEEcLo" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"direc= tion: auto;text-align: start;unicode-bidi: isolate;font-family: 'SF Pro Dis= play',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Se= goe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emo= ji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: normal;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialias= ed;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibil= ity;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;marg= in: 4px 0 0;color: #777777;line-height: 24px;font-size: 18px;margin-top: 12= px;">Can happiness be optimized?</h3><table class=3D"post-meta" role=3D"pre= sentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" = style=3D"margin: 1em 0;height: 20px;align-items: center;"><tbody><tr><td><t= able role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" ce= llpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" = border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"ve= rtical-align:middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-primary-zABazT = line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC = transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA custom-css-email-post-a= uthor" style=3D"list-style: none;font-size: 11px;line-height: 20px;text-dec= oration: unset;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin: 0;font-family: 'SF Compact',-ap= ple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Hel= vetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symb= ol';font-weight: 500;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;"><a cl= ass=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-primary-zABazT line-height-20-t4M0El font-me= ta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq re= set-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA" style=3D"list-style: none;color: rgb(54,55,55);marg= in: 0;font-size: 11px;line-height: 20px;font-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-sy= stem,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica= ,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';fo= nt-weight: 500;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;text-decorati= on: none" href=3D"https://substack.com/@harrylaw">Harry Law</a></div></td><= /tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D= "auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td styl= e=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-secondar= y-ls1g8s line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-mediu= m-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA" style=3D"list= -style: none;font-size: 11px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;color= : rgb(119,119,119);margin: 0;font-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system= -ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans= -serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: = 500;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;"><time datetime=3D"2026= -01-23T15:05:26.430Z">Jan 23</time></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></t= r></tbody></table></td><td align=3D"right"><table role=3D"presentation" wid= th=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td= style=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/@harrylaw= "><img class=3D"custom-css-email-avatar avatar-QIQ5yR" src=3D"https://subst= ackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yasj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/ht= 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8px;border: none;vertical-align: middle;margin-right: 0;margin-left: 0;max-= width: 18px" alt=3D""></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></tab= le></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr height=3D"16"><td height=3D"16" = style=3D"font-size:0px;line-height:0;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></di= v></div><div class=3D"post typography" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"--image-offset= -margin: -120px;padding: 32px 0 0 0;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><di= v class=3D"body markup" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"text-align: initial;font-size= : 16px;line-height: 26px;width: 100%;word-break: break-word;margin-bottom: = 16px;font-family: Lora,sans-serif;font-weight: 400;"><div class=3D"captione= d-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin= : 32px auto;margin-top: 0;"><figure style=3D"width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;"><= table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"= cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-p= adding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td= ><td class=3D"content" align=3D"left" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text-align: c= enter;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.= com/redirect/1fddedcd-4fd6-46a5-a5f6-88004275a966?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h= 9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"position: rel= ative;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;hei= ght: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;margi= n-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><img class=3D"wide-image" data-attrs=3D"{"= src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/= c0e2845a-2e7c-49e6-bb7e-52d3af358678_1600x1004.png","srcNoWaterma= rk":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"= height":914,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"= bytes":null,"alt":null,"title":null,"type&quo= t;:null,"href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage= ":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":fals= e,"align":null,"offset":false}" alt=3D"" width=3D"550" = height=3D"345.260989010989" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!= Iq4b!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2F= substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc0e2845a-2e7c-49e6= -bb7e-52d3af358678_1600x1004.png" style=3D"border: none !important;vertical= -align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;= margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !important;margin: = 0 auto;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></tab= le><figcaption class=3D"image-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: content-box;col= or: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-weight: 400;let= ter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15%;padding-ri= ght: 15%;text-align: center;"><em>Two Men Contemplating the Moon</em><span>= by Caspar David Friedrich (1819)</span></figcaption></figure></div><p styl= e=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 1= 6px;">There are two things that I rarely take off: my wedding ring and my G= armin watch. The former stays on because it seldom crosses my mind to remov= e it. To tell the truth, I’m not even sure I could take it off withou= t the right combination of soapy water, elbow grease, and patience. The lat= ter, the Garmin, stays put because I have a regrettable obsession with bodi= ly metrics. I like to know my heart rate, stress levels, and especially the= state of my body battery (a wildly inaccurate read about how much fatigue = I ought to be feeling at any given moment).</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px= 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>I’m= not one of those life-hacking optimization types, but I wear the watch all= the same. It helps me track runs and workouts, which I review every day or= two when I lack enthusiasm for another trip to the gym. People often tell = me my preoccupation with these figures probably makes me more stressed. The= y might be right. Nonetheless, I keep using it because I worry that without= constantly reviewing breaths-per-minute or VO</span><sub style=3D"font-siz= e: 0.75em;line-height: 0;">2</sub><sup style=3D"font-size: 0.75em;line-heig= ht: 0;"> </sup><span>max I’d be tempted to call time on this wellness= thing.</span></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-= height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>At least in my imagination, fitness &#= 8211; and so Garmin – is a part of my personal quest for </span><em>e= udaimonia</em><span> (usually translated as ‘flourishing’ or &#= 8216;happiness’). </span><em>Eudaimonia</em><span> is less a feeling = or a state than the activity of living in accordance with virtue. I think t= hat fitness helps me become someone who’s disciplined and fairly heal= thy, and that’s the kind of person I want to be. In this light, the q= uestion that my smartwatch poses is an uncomfortable one: can flourishing b= e optimized for or must it be cultivated from within?</span></p><p style=3D= "margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;= "><span>Garmin’s algorithms are neither sophisticated nor totalizing.= They stay in their lane and have a rather narrow set of powers of suggesti= on. They don’t tell me how to exercise anymore than a pencil tells me= what to write. Others, like recommender systems or large language models, = aren’t so reserved. They suggest where to go, what to have for breakf= ast, what to watch on TV, and even how to broach a difficult subject with s= omeone we care about. At the limit, these systems may make all of our decis= ions for us in a scenario we call “</span><a href=3D"https://substack= =2Ecom/redirect/9a55b8e9-a0ce-4781-ab4= 8-844da6ae6d18?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.= h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"color: rgb(5= 4,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">autocomplete for life</a><span>.̶= 1;</span></p><h3 class=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"position: relative;f= ont-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system= ,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Col= or Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font= -smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appear= ance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: op= timizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: = 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">The Wood from the Trees</h3><p style=3D"margin:= 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>= In </span><em>On Liberty </em><span>Mill tells us something about the human= condition: “Human nature is not a machine to be built after a </span= ><strong>model</strong><span>, and set to do exactly the work prescribed fo= r it, but a </span><strong>tree</strong><span>, which requires to grow and = develop itself on all sides, according to the tendency of the inward forces= which make it a living thing.” For Mill, human flourishing is develo= pmental. It cannot be achieved through external optimization because the pr= ocess of growth is essential for the good life. This is why he describes hu= man nature as a tree. The metaphor captures the idea that we grow from late= nt capacities and inclinations that must be discovered and shaped through s= elf-directed action. Those tendencies suggest paths, but they require auton= omy to be actualized.</span></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(5= 4,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>In the </span><em>Nicoma= chean Ethics</em><span>, Aristotle tells us that flourishing flows from vir= tue and virtue through habituation. Rather than asking “what should I= do?” he encourages us to ask “what kind of person should I bec= ome?” Grounded in the way people act in the real world, AristotleR= 17;s approach to ethical life focuses on character development over rule-fo= llowing or achieving the greatest good for as many people as possible. His = “golden mean” (finding virtue by balancing extremes) requires <= /span><em>phronesis </em><span>or practical wisdom, the capacity to discern= the right action in particular circumstances developed only through living= in the world.</span></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55= );line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">For both Mill and Aristotle, human fl= ourishing is a journey we make every day. Try as we might, there are no sho= rtcuts we can take. The activity of living a self-directed life can never b= e automated because it is constitutive of what it means to flourish in the = first place. A life in which all the right choices were made for you might = be pleasant, even enviable, but it would not be yours in the sense that mat= ters. This belief, that flourishing cannot be optimized from the outside, i= s based on three separate but related ideas: (1) flourishing is a process o= f being; (2) it requires careful self-authorship; and (3) it must be mainta= ined solely from within. An optimized outcome can simulate contentment, but= it cannot substitute for active exercise or resilient capacities.</p><h3 c= lass=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pr= o Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFon= t,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe U= I Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antial= iased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegi= bility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;m= argin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: = 1.375em;">Go Forth and Optimize</h3><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: r= gb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Machine learning systems a= re trained by optimizing a loss function, but in deployment most function a= s pattern-completion engines rather than goal-directed agents. When these s= ystems engage humans, they typically optimize for an external objective (e.= g. engagement, throughput, or compliance) and treat the user as the site of= optimization rather than its author. Even if the objective was human flour= ishing, we would remain the patient of optimization rather than its archite= ct. The technical apparatus assumes that a desirable end-point can be speci= fied in advance so that the system constructs outcomes rather than growing = them. That is unproblematic for the most part – it’s just how t= he technology functions – but it begins to surface some curious probl= ems when it comes into contact with our efforts to live deliberately.</p><p= style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-si= ze: 16px;"><span>You can see this dynamic in play with recommender systems = that suggest what you want before you have had a chance to reflect on it. T= hese systems learn from aggregate behavior to predict and shape individual = choices, like suggesting the optimal route or by pushing you towards televi= sion shows or music that “someone like you” ought to like. A ki= nd of overfitting to past behavior can </span><a href=3D"https://substack.c= om/redirect/22c8993a-3675-488d-9790-67a718ecfe9d?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9= dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"color: rgb(54,= 55,55);text-decoration: underline;">restrict users to previously expressed = interests</a><span>, generating recommendations that whittle away the varie= ty of options needed to recognize the opportunity costs of choice.</span></= p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;fon= t-size: 16px;"><span>Core to this process is the “nudge” wherei= n the presentation of choices is shaped by an outside actor. Unlike earlier= static nudges (such as placing healthy food at eye level), AI-driven nudge= s operate continuously and adaptively. Given enough scale, this transforms = what was once soft paternalism into something closer to soft totalitarianis= m as fine-grained personalization makes interventions harder to collectivel= y resist. The more criteria are centrally set, the greater the attack surfa= ce for those who would exploit them, and the more these systems inhibit the= </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/eaedd973-81da-4f97-94db-75= cfe95cbf55?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-H= yoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">de= centralized adaptive learning</a><span> through which individuals and socie= ties discover what works. When the environment is engineered to produce pre= dictable choices, the capacity to exercise choice becomes harder to sustain= =2E</span></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20= px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height= : 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>A common </span><a href=3D"https://substack.= com/redirect/e1c0574c-755f-44a1-aba9-04dbbbefe9cd?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h= 9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"color: rgb(54= ,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">defense</a><span> of nudges holds that= they preserve freedom of choice while improving outcomes for society as a = whole. Proponents suggest that nudges influence behavior mostly for our ben= efit, and that they are easy to avoid if we put our mind to it. If people c= an always choose otherwise, their autonomy is not compromised. The rub is t= hat true autonomy deals with at least both first-order choices (I want a ci= garette) </span><em>and</em><span> second-order reflection on those choices= (I wish I could stop smoking). Nudges often bypass reflection – how = many of us are content with taking the first movie recommendation we see? &= #8211; preserving formal freedom of choice while undermining the authorship= that makes them our own. Defenders of nudges might say something like R= 20;if someone’s going to unthinkingly pick the first movie, it might = as well be a good one.” But this line of thinking doesn’t engag= e with the fact that nudges make deliberation harder in the first place. Wh= en we engage in critical reflection, we weigh alternatives and formulate ou= r own reasons about what to do. That process is harder to initiate when a &= #8220;good enough” option is presented to us that bypasses the need f= or deliberation. </span></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,= 55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">More than that, the idea that nu= dges are easy to avoid fails given enough altitude. Even granting that indi= vidual nudges may be possible to avoid, like walking past that salad bar an= d opting for a cheeseburger, an ambient ecology of personalized nudges is n= ot. This gets at one of the curious aspects of autonomy: for such a persona= l thing, it depends on social life and the opportunities to contest and com= pare it brings with it. Autonomy fails when exit is nominal or when commitm= ents become irreversible. Of course all choices exist within a constellatio= n of potential options, but it is possible in principle to structure those = potentialities through systems that keep inquiry distributed rather than ce= ntrally engineered.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);= line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Another critique of the developmental v= iew of human nature (that is, Mill’s tree) suggests that the problem = is not optimization per se but poorly specified objectives. If we could ali= gn AI systems with genuine human goods, including autonomy, then optimizati= on might in principle be made compatible with human flourishing. One influe= ntial proposal, associated with AI researcher Stuart Russell, introduces a = simple framework based on three related principles: (1) the AI’s only= objective is to maximize the realization of human values; (2) the AI is in= itially uncertain what those values are; and (3) human behavior is the prim= ary source of information about values.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;c= olor: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">But if flourishing = really is an activity rather than a state, then it may not be the kind of t= hing that can be maximized by an external agent. Like happiness in Aristotl= e’s account, it might simply be a good that must be exercised from wi= thin. In practical terms, learning values from behavior must grapple with i= ts own circularity. If current behavior reflects preferences already shaped= by prior optimization, the system is learning from wants that we havenR= 17;t fully endorsed.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55)= ;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">More fundamentally, observed behavior = may be the wrong place to look. Conduct reveals who we have been, not who w= e are trying to be. The developmental view suggests that we are always unde= rgoing growth, and the distance between our actions and our aspirations is = where character development takes place. No amount of behavioral data, howe= ver rich, can capture what we have not yet become. That said, Russell’= ;s humility principle points toward something important. It reminds us that= systems that surface uncertainty and return judgment to the user are more = autonomy-preserving than those that do not.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px= 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Another p= roblem deals with adequately specifying preferences for AI systems in line = with the developmental view. Current models focus on </span><em>revealed pr= eferences</em><span> (what we do) in service of a goal that they set (maxim= ize time on platform in the case of recommendation engines or assist in a &= #8220;</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/423aad80-0463-4aee-bd= ad-d497477d8de2?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6= eWS-HyoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline= ;">helpful, honest, and harmless</a><span>” manner for language model= s). Simply telling the system what you want to want isn’t enough; the= se </span><em>stated preferences </em><span>may not necessarily reflect the= kind of person you are trying to be. Deeper approaches to character develo= pment will be needed for systems that help us realize our potential. </spa= n></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px= ;font-size: 16px;">A final objection to the developmental reading of human = nature might stress that all technology assists human action. Writing suppo= rts memory and calculators aid arithmetic (though overreliance can enfeeble= both). If external assistance inherently undermines autonomy, shouldn̵= 7;t we be wary of tools altogether? But the difference between AI and other= technologies turns on whether assistance extends the agent’s deliber= ation or replaces it. A map or pencil extends my autonomy, a chatbot that m= akes decisions for me does not.</p><h3 class=3D"header-anchor-post" style= =3D"position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline= ,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Ari= al,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-w= eight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: an= tialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizel= egibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb= (54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: 1.375em;">The Constant Gardener</= h3><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;fo= nt-size: 16px;"><span>Am I using the system to pursue ends I have reflectiv= ely endorsed within, or is the system shaping my ends from without? Even wh= en you supply preferences, a system must decide how act on them according t= o its own </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/d24e1263-41a6-489= 1-b170-35d500701364?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKG= oFv6eWS-HyoA" rel=3D"" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: under= line;">constitution</a><span>. If we have little ability to override those = rules, well-meaning efforts at governance may inadvertently prevent systems= from supporting our personal quests for </span><em>eudaimonia. </em><span>= Consider a recommendation system that learns my preferences from behavior a= nd serves content to maximize engagement. The system optimizes for my revea= led preferences. But there’s no reason a recommender system needs to = operate this way. It’s easy enough to build a system that allows user= s to think carefully about the type of person they would like to become by = using the same technology. The former might serve you reality TV because yo= u watched a cooking show; the latter might populate your feed with guides f= or cooking dishes you’ve always wanted to make.</span></p><p style=3D= "margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;= ">This is better, but even this kind of second order endorsement is insuffi= cient. If you tell a system the kind of things you want to be interested in= , then you may find that the system quickly optimises for them in a way tha= t does little to help you grow as a person. Watching more arthouse cinema a= nd fewer Netflix originals has little bearing on the type of life you want = to live. Instead, systems ought to deal with the stuff that matters. Person= al agents, for example, could be designed to sift interests from from chara= cter development. They could help us think about who we want to become rath= er than engineering the outcomes we think we want.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0= 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In pract= ice, that might mean an AI assistant that makes its influence legible. Rath= er than covertly curating your information environment, a character-support= ing agent might show you the paths not taken. It might introduce the unfami= liar because growth requires encounters beyond the experiences you’ve= already had. At minimum, such systems should make exit realistic through p= ortability and contestability and ensure we sign off any changes that may i= nfluence our higher order commitments. Rather than simply checking whether = your goals have changed, they could surface tensions between your commitmen= ts to help you live more deliberately. </p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;c= olor: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-bottom: 0;">Op= timizing flourishing from the outside is a non-starter because flourishing = is active and authored. But if the locus of deliberation remains with us, p= erhaps AI can help us live a little more wisely.</p></div></div><div class= =3D"postscript-placeholder" style=3D"margin: 32px 0 0;width: 100%;box-sizin= g: border-box;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"></div><table class=3D"ema= il-ufi-2-bottom" role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspac= ing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"border-top: 1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);bo= rder-bottom: 1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);min-width: 100%;"><tbody><tr height=3D= "16"><td height=3D"16" style=3D"font-size:0px;line-height:0;"> </td></= tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspa= cing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" wi= dth=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"marg= in:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><table role=3D"= presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"= 0"><tbody><tr><td 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