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Subject: Radical ethical disagreement, latent reasoning, replication crises, and more
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View this post on the web at https://blog.cosmos-institute.org/p/radical-et=
hical-disagreement-latent

Over the last few weeks, Cosmos grantees from our latest cohort [ https://s=
ubstack.com/redirect/df5be114-c72f-497e-9b8e-73932f9a628e?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxe=
XF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ] (including on our trut=
h-seeking track we run together with FIRE) have been updating us on the fin=
dings of their research and walking through prototypes they=E2=80=99ve buil=
t.=20
As ever, we were impressed by the speed, passion, and technical sophisticat=
ion on display. Though what also stood out was the diversity of the project=
s, which ranged from new benchmarks through to classifiers, and even includ=
ed a new encyclopedia. We=E2=80=99ve pulled out some highlights below.
This is just a snapshot of the work that we=E2=80=99re supporting; we=E2=80=
=99ll continue to share updates on what our grantees are up to, along with =
project write-ups [ https://substack.com/redirect/4d6dde47-b8c7-4abe-bbea-a=
f4c75377e8c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-=
HyoA ].
If you=E2=80=99re interested in learning more, you can read about all the p=
rojects that Cosmos supports here [ https://substack.com/redirect/89a9a454-=
d3d8-40f0-b32b-2e175ae753ec?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYW=
klSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ].
General track
These two projects are from our General Track, which operates on a similar =
model to Emergent Ventures: $1-10k awards for builders working across our t=
hree pillars of autonomy, truth-seeking, and decentralization.
Spotting the next replication crisis
In recent years, large numbers of eye-catching studies have been found to b=
e unreplicable. This =E2=80=98replication crisis=E2=80=99 hit psychology fi=
rst, but has spread across a number of other academic disciplines. The curr=
ent response to replication failures has largely been to discover which ind=
ividual studies don=E2=80=99t hold up. In the meantime, potentially decades=
 of work could have been built on flawed foundations. AI research is a stro=
ng candidate for the next crisis. Experiments are highly sensitive to small=
 changes in the setup, so the same experiment run twice can give you differ=
ent answers
Rhea Karty [ https://substack.com/redirect/8d3c850b-01da-45cc-a411-df419929=
831c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ],=
 a pre-doctoral fellow at Harvard=E2=80=99s metareflection lab, has built R=
eplication Radar =E2=80=93 a knowledge-graph tool that tries to detect epis=
temic fragility at a field rather than a paper-level before the replication=
 crisis breaks. The pipeline ingests papers, stores them as a graph, runs u=
ser queries, scores each paper, and visualizes the result. It looks for sig=
nals such as tightly clustered author networks, citation rings, sudden cita=
tion bursts, institutional monoculture, whether retractions actually propag=
ate to the papers that cited them, and small sample sizes, with optional LL=
M analysis on top.
Rhea validated the tool by showing that it could detect most of the papers =
involved in the psychology replication crisis using only data from before i=
t broke.
The next step for the research is to move from papers to concepts, such as =
theories, effects, or methodological assumptions that individual discipline=
s rely on heavily.
Discovering latent reasoning
Reasoning models are increasingly trained with reinforcement learning, and =
often perform much better on difficult reasoning tasks. But what is this tr=
aining actually changing inside the model? Prior work [ https://substack.co=
m/redirect/a305655c-6ef8-4609-94a4-3476bc21607b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9d=
EDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ] suggests that Reinforcement Lear=
ning with Verifiable Rewards (a crucial post-training technique for most re=
asoning models) mainly rearranges probabilities over reasoning paths the ba=
se model could already produce, nudging it at a few important decision poin=
ts. But this doesn=E2=80=99t fully explain how fine-tuned models hold long =
chains of reasoning together from start to finish.
Hunar Batra [ https://substack.com/redirect/bfcb003d-dce7-458e-a871-1463861=
4f907?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ]=
, a DPhil researcher at Oxford, studies whether reasoning fine-tuning does =
something more global: reorganising the model=E2=80=99s internal dynamics i=
nto a latent reasoning policy. Instead of only changing which next token th=
e model prefers, training may help the model enter, maintain, and switch be=
tween coherent internal modes as reasoning unfolds. In written chains of th=
ought, we often see shifts between setting up the problem, retrieving facts=
, planning, computing, checking the answer, and producing the final respons=
e. The question is whether these shifts also appear inside the model=E2=80=
=99s activations.
To test this, the work models reasoning as a system that switches between d=
istinct modes. It looks at the internal representations of base and reasoni=
ng-trained Llama and Qwen models sentence by sentence, using a contrastive =
method to identify what regime the model is operating in at each step.
These regimes are compared against eight defined reasoning stages, includin=
g planning, computation, verification, and answer emission. Reasoning-train=
ed models show clearer internal structure than base models: more persistent=
 modes, more structured transitions, and stronger specialization around rec=
ognizable reasoning functions. These detected latent reasoning policies can=
 be used to steer a base model toward behaviours seen in reasoning-trained =
models. On hard problems the base model previously failed, this raised perf=
ormance to 60% on Qwen 1.5B and 46% on Llama 8B.
Hunar=E2=80=99s follow-up work is on reward hacking. She=E2=80=99s building=
 test environments that elicit reward-hacking behaviour during RL training,=
 better monitors that catch it by tracing what drove the reward, and post-t=
raining methods that reduce the damage from misspecified rewards. Early res=
ults suggest this catches forms of deception that current approaches, which=
 only inspect a model=E2=80=99s written reasoning, tend to miss.
Truth-seeking
Alongside our general grants, we run a track focused specifically on AI and=
 truth-seeking, in partnership with the Foundation for Individual Rights an=
d Expression [ https://substack.com/redirect/f6a0f6d7-d070-4f8c-9060-b8b1d9=
b97811?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA =
] (FIRE) =E2=80=93 a non-partisan organization that fights for free speech =
and free thought.
Normalizing radical disagreement
The Conversational System for Intense Disagreement and Ethical Reflection (=
Consider) is a conversational AI platform for the discussion of =E2=80=9Cra=
dical moral disagreements=E2=80=9D, produced by the Design Bioethics Labora=
tory at the University of Oxford. These are disagreements on topics that ar=
e so polarizing and emotionally sensitive that people feel unable to discus=
s them, even with people who might agree, out of fear of social consequence=
s.
The user picks a topic from a list determined by a prior study and then sta=
tes their opinion. The LLM then asks clarifying questions and works with th=
e user to create a summary. The user then selects a =E2=80=9Cdisagreeabilit=
y level=E2=80=9D and then engages in a 10 minute discussion, with the LLM t=
aking the opposing side. At the end, it provides feedback on various aspect=
s of the user=E2=80=99s moral beliefs, as well as areas of agreement and di=
sagreement between the user and AI.
The team also held a 16-person seminar with experts from philosophy, comput=
er science, political science, and psychology.
The discussion covered tensions such as whether exposure to disagreement ac=
tually produces belief revision, how to keep the tool complementary to rath=
er than displacing human conversation, and how to handle the fact that even=
 the experts instinctively tried to win arguments against the platform rath=
er than use it for reflection. These findings will feed back into the next =
iteration of the tool.
Breaking open the black box
The industry standard for safety monitoring is reading a model=E2=80=99s ch=
ain of thought and flagging unsafe reasoning with another AI as a judge. Bu=
t a capable model can produce a clean-looking chain of thought that doesn=
=E2=80=99t reflect what=E2=80=99s actually driving its decisions =E2=80=93 =
known as unfaithfulness. Giovanni Maria Occhipinti, a visiting researcher a=
t the University of Oxford, aims to enhance transparency through a white-bo=
x approach.
The framework has two components.
Probes are lightweight classifiers that learn to tell faithful and unfaithf=
ul reasoning apart by looking at the model=E2=80=99s internal states. Train=
ing works by feeding the model adversarial prompts that induce unfaithful r=
easoning, using an LLM judge to label each case, and capturing the internal=
 patterns that correspond to each. The probe learns the signature that sepa=
rates the two. At inference time you run a new prompt through the model, pu=
ll out those internal patterns, and check them against the probe.
Steering vectors work in the same space. They=E2=80=99re adjustments you ca=
n apply to the model=E2=80=99s internal activity to nudge it toward more tr=
ansparent reasoning.
The probes achieved over 90 percent accuracy, while the steering vectors re=
stored readable reasoning in up to 46 percent of cases.
The paper [ https://substack.com/redirect/77023793-bbf5-4731-9bca-2d7ea46cd=
5d1?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA ] h=
as been accepted as an oral presentation at ICLR 2026 and Gio is looking fo=
r funders and collaborators to take it forward.
We=E2=80=99ll have more to say on future grant waves and how you can get in=
volved in the coming weeks. The best way to keep up to ensure you don=E2=80=
=99t miss any opportunities to share your work or ideas is to subscribe bel=
ow.
Cosmos Institute [ https://substack.com/redirect/074ea2f1-e8e6-4759-a43e-ac=
c848f6204b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-H=
yoA ] is the Academy for Philosopher-Builders, technologists building AI fo=
r human flourishing. We run fellowships, fund AI prototypes, and host semin=
ars with institutions like Oxford, Aspen Institute, and Liberty Fund.

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@media (max-width: 650px) {
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  .typography.editor .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.four {
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  .typography .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img,
  .typography.editor .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-=
img,
  .typography .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img,
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
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tion,
  .typography.editor .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-=
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .typography .markup .apple-podcast-container,
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}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
  .typography .markup .install-substack-app-embed img.install-substack-app-=
embed-img,
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}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
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ed-text,
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app-embed-text {
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}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
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ed-link,
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 481px) {
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 481px) {
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}
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 480px) {
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 481px) {
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .settings-add-pub-modal-wrapper .container .add-recommending-pub-modal-co=
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .settings-add-pub-modal-wrapper .container .add-recommending-pub-modal-co=
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
  .post {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-header .post-label {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-header .meta-author-wrap.alternative-meta .meta-right-column =
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-footer.use-separators {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .post-footer.next-prev {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-contributor-footer .post-contributor-bio-table {
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 768px) {
  .post-silhouette {
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}
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  .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-title {
    margin-top: 10.44225025px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-meta {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-silhouette .post-silhouette-meta.with-byline-image {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .use-theme-bg .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item,
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
  .use-theme-bg .post-meta.alternative-meta .post-meta-item,
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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blication,
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
  .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button {
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    /* important to override in-line height style on emails */
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  .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button .meta-button-label {
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  .post-meta .post-meta-item .post-meta-button > svg {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
  .post-meta .post-meta-item {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post .floating-subscribe-button {
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    right: 20px;
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}
@media (max-width: 1024px) {
  body .pullquote-align-left,
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}
@media all and (-ms-high-contrast: none), (-ms-high-contrast: active) {
  body .markup table.image-wrapper img,
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}
@media (min-width: 1024px) {
  body:not(:has(#toc)) .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-off=
set-left) {
    margin-left: var(--image-offset-margin);
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set-right) {
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}
@media (min-width: 1300px) {
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}
@media (max-width: 1024px) {
  body {
    /* Disable offset on mobile/tablet */
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  body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-left),
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    width: auto;
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  body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-left.thefp),
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{
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  body .captioned-image-container figure:has(> a.image2-align-left) .image2=
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2-inset {
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}
@media (max-width: 768px) {
  body .markup div.sponsorship-campaign-embed {
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    margin-bottom: 24px;
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  body .markup div.sponsorship-campaign-embed:first-child {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup div.youtube-overlay,
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 370px) {
  body .markup div.tiktok-wrap {
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    height: calc((95vw - 32px - 2px) / 0.485714);
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup div.embedded-publication-wrap .embedded-publication.show-sub=
scribe {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subsc=
ribe,
  body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap-editor .subscription-widget.sho=
w-subscribe,
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e {
    padding: 0px 24px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subsc=
ribe .subscription-widget-subscribe .button,
  body .markup div.subscription-widget-wrap-editor .subscription-widget.sho=
w-subscribe .subscription-widget-subscribe .button,
  body .markup div.captioned-button-wrap .subscription-widget.show-subscrib=
e .subscription-widget-subscribe .button {
    padding: 10px 12px;
    min-width: 110px;
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .twitter-embed,
  body .markup .tweet {
    padding: 12px;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-text,
  body .markup .tweet .tweet-text {
    font-size: 14px;
    line-height: 20px;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-photos-container.two,
  body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.two,
  body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-photos-container.three,
  body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.three,
  body .markup .twitter-embed .tweet-photos-container.four,
  body .markup .tweet .tweet-photos-container.four {
    height: 200px;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img,
  body .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-img {
    max-height: 180px;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .twitter-embed a.expanded-link .expanded-link-description,
  body .markup .tweet a.expanded-link .expanded-link-description {
    display: none;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  body .markup .apple-podcast-container {
    width: unset;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
  body .markup .install-substack-app-embed img.install-substack-app-embed-i=
mg {
    margin: 0 auto 16px auto;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
  body .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-app-embed-text=
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    margin: 0 0 12px 0;
    max-width: 100%;
    width: auto;
    text-align: center;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
  body .markup .install-substack-app-embed .install-substack-app-embed-link=
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    display: flex;
    justify-content: center;
  }
}
@media screen and (min-width: 500px) {
  body .header a.logo {
    width: 42px;
    height: 42px;
    border-radius: 12px;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 420px) {
  body .subscription-receipt table:first-of-type .subscription-amount .subs=
cription-discount {
    width: 72px !important;
  }
}
@media screen and (min-width: 481px) {
  body .share-button-container {
    height: auto;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 480px) {
  body .share-button-container .separator {
    display: block !important;
    margin: 0 !important;
    height: 8px !important;
    border-left: none !important;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .digest .item .post-meta-item.audience {
    display: none;
  }
}
@media screen and (min-width: 500px) {
  .digest-publication .logo img {
    width: 42px;
    height: 42px;
    border-radius: 8px;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .comments-page .container .comment-list .collapsed-reply {
    margin-left: calc(10 + 32px - 24px);
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .comment > .comment-list {
    padding-left: 24px;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .finish-magic-login-modal .modal-content .container {
    padding: 24px 0;
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  .reader2-text-b3 {
    line-height: 24px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .reader2-text-h4 {
    line-height: 24px;
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .user-profile-modal {
    padding-left: 12px;
    padding-right: 12px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .subscribe-widget form.form .sideBySideWrap button.rightButton {
    padding: 10px 12px;
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .pub-icon:hover .logo-hover,
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    display: block;
  }
}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .post-ufi.single-full-width-button .post-ufi-button-wrapper {
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    padding: 16px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
  .file-embed-wrapper {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 768px) {
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}
@media only screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media only screen and (min-width: 630px) {
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}
@media screen and (min-width: 541px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper .audio-player {
    min-width: 500px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper .audio-player .audio-player-progress {
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    border-right-width: 16px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper .audio-player .audio-player-progress .audio-player-=
progress-bar .audio-player-progress-bar-popup {
    top: -54px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-progress {
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    border-right-width: 16px;
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}
@media screen and (max-width: 650px) {
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layer-progress-bar .audio-player-progress-bar-popup {
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}
@media (min-width: 250px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player {
    padding: 32px;
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}
@media (min-width: 300px) {
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    display: block;
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button:first-of-typ=
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}
@media (min-width: 350px) {
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    display: block;
  }
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-title {
    margin-top: 16px;
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai=
ner {
    padding-top: 15%;
    width: 15%;
    display: block;
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e {
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-substack-logo {
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  }
}
@media (min-width: 350px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai=
ner {
    padding-top: 25%;
    width: 25%;
    display: block;
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  }
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button:first-of-typ=
e {
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}
@media (min-width: 400px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai=
ner {
    padding-top: 40%;
    width: 40%;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 400px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group {
    margin-top: 12px;
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  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .btn-group .button {
    font-size: 13px;
    padding: 6px 12px;
    height: auto;
    margin-top: 10px;
  }
}
@media (min-width: 600px) {
  .audio-player-wrapper-fancy .audio-player .audio-player-hero-image-contai=
ner {
    padding-top: 55%;
    width: 55%;
  }
}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
  .poll-editor-modal {
    min-width: calc(100% - 20px);
  }
}
@media (max-width: 750px) {
  .poll-embed .poll-anchor-target .poll-anchor-copy-button {
    left: 8px;
    top: 45px;
  }
}</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;--im=
age-offset-margin: -120px;"><img src=3D"https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/o/1ef=
403ebcd50138a/p.gif?token=3DeyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwNTE5MTUzNTQxLjMuMzI4NTcxOGIzODY=
2ZTZjZUBtZzIuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjM0NzI1ODk4NSwiciI6ImFsdmFyb2NoZkB0cm=
FjZXNlaXMuY29tIiwiZCI6Im1nMi5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20iLCJwIjoxOTg0MDU1MzAsInQiOiJuZ=
XdzbGV0dGVyIiwiYSI6ImV2ZXJ5b25lIiwicyI6MjIyNTc5NCwiYyI6InBvc3QiLCJmIjp0cnVl=
LCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6InRvcCIsImlhdCI6MTc3OTIwNDk4MywiZXhwIjoxNzgxNzk2OTgzLCJpc3M=
iOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImVvIn0.70TOhzu0VmeoUTi8zJZWXVe5lZcDxOlMr6oSeIChiHQ" a=
lt=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1px !importan=
t;width:1px !important;border-width:0 !important;margin-top:0 !important;ma=
rgin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !important=
;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-right:0 !impo=
rtant;padding-left:0 !important;"/><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:=
none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0=
px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">A selection of grant projects from our recen=
t demo day</div><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:none;font-size:1px;=
color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overfl=
ow:hidden;">&#847; &nbsp; &#8199; &#173;&#847; &nbsp; &#8199; &#173;&#847; =
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link/post?publication_id=3D2225794&post_id=3D198405530&utm_source=3Dpost-em=
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(54,55,55);text-decoration: none;">Radical ethical disagreement, latent rea=
soning, replication crises, and more</a></h1><h3 class=3D"subtitle subtitle=
-HEEcLo" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"direction: auto;text-align: start;unicode-bi=
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00;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;text-decoration: none" hr=
ef=3D"https://substack.com/@cosmosinstitute">Cosmos Institute</a></div></td=
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t: 500;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;"><time datetime=3D"2=
026-05-19T15:35:41.370Z">May 19</time></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td>=
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lt=3D""></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td><td width=3D"8" style=3D"min-wid=
th:8px;"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><table role=3D"presentat=
ion" width=3D"38" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><=
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izing: border-box;width: 38px"><img class=3D"icon" src=3D"https://substackc=
dn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ubXF!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:=
steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2Fnotes__NoteRestackIcon%3Fv%3D4%26=
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cing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;=
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ion: none;color: rgb(119,119,119);"><div class=3D"email-button-spacer" styl=
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text" style=3D"vertical-align: middle;margin-right: 4px">READ IN APP</span>=
<img class=3D"icon text-icon" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s=
_!ET-_!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fs=
ubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideArrowUpRight%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone=
%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2" width=3D"18" height=3D"18" style=
=3D"min-width: 18px;min-height: 18px;border: none;vertical-align: middle;ma=
rgin-right: 0;margin-left: 0;max-width: 18px" alt=3D""></a></td></tr></tbod=
y></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr=
 height=3D"16"><td height=3D"16" style=3D"font-size:0px;line-height:0;">&nb=
sp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div class=3D"post typography" dir=
=3D"auto" style=3D"--image-offset-margin: -120px;padding: 32px 0 0 0;font-s=
ize: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><div class=3D"body markup" dir=3D"auto" style=
=3D"text-align: initial;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;width: 100%;word-=
break: break-word;margin-bottom: 16px;font-family: Lora,sans-serif;font-wei=
ght: 400;"><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height:=
 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-top: 0;"><span>Over the last few weeks, Cosmos=
 grantees from </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/df5be114-c72=
f-497e-9b8e-73932f9a628e?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklS=
u8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline=
;">our latest cohort</a><span> (including on our truth-seeking track we run=
 together with FIRE) have been updating us on the findings of their researc=
h and walking through prototypes they&#8217;ve built. </span></p><p style=
=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16=
px;">As ever, we were impressed by the speed, passion, and technical sophis=
tication on display. Though what also stood out was the diversity of the pr=
ojects, which ranged from new benchmarks through to classifiers, and even i=
ncluded a new encyclopedia. We&#8217;ve pulled out some highlights below.</=
p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;fon=
t-size: 16px;"><span>This is just a snapshot of the work that we&#8217;re s=
upporting; we&#8217;ll continue to share updates on what our grantees are u=
p to, along with </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/4d6dde47-b=
8c7-4abe-bbea-af4c75377e8c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWk=
lSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underli=
ne;">project write-ups</a><span>.</span></p><div class=3D"captioned-image-c=
ontainer-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px au=
to;"><figure style=3D"width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;"><table class=3D"image-wr=
apper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data=
-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em=
;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td class=3D"content" =
align=3D"left" width=3D"724" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"imag=
e-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/a5a9be36-43=
a5-43b1-ab51-16bd7b43c2d0?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWkl=
Su8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"position: relative;flex-direction: column;alig=
n-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decor=
ation: none;display: block;margin: 0;"><img class=3D"wide-image" data-attrs=
=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/pub=
lic/images/529987ac-b987-497a-a9c6-56dcb1ac2ea6_1994x2048.png&quot;,&quot;s=
rcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:=
null,&quot;height&quot;:1495,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;=
:724,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&qu=
ot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&qu=
ot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing=
&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" alt=3D"" wid=
th=3D"550" height=3D"564.7321428571429" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/imag=
e/fetch/$s_!RtsF!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/ht=
tps%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F529987=
ac-b987-497a-a9c6-56dcb1ac2ea6_1994x2048.png" style=3D"border: none !import=
ant;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;h=
eight: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !import=
ant;margin: 0 auto;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr><=
/tbody></table><figcaption class=3D"image-caption" style=3D"box-sizing: con=
tent-box;color: rgb(119,119,119);font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-wei=
ght: 400;letter-spacing: -.15px;margin-top: 8px;width: 70%;padding-left: 15=
%;padding-right: 15%;text-align: center;">Four projects that grantees have =
recently posted about. These are additional to the write-ups below.</figcap=
tion></figure></div><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);lin=
e-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>If you&#8217;re interested in learni=
ng more, you can read about all the projects that Cosmos supports </span><a=
 href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/89a9a454-d3d8-40f0-b32b-2e175ae753ec=
?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=
=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">here</a><span>.</span=
></p><div class=3D"subscribe-widget is-signed-up" data-component-name=3D"Su=
bscribeWidget" style=3D"margin: 0 0 1em;direction: ltr;font-size: 16px;line=
-height: 26px;"><div class=3D"pencraft pc-reset button-wrapper" style=3D"te=
xt-decoration: unset;list-style: none;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;tex=
t-align: center;cursor: pointer;border-radius: 4px;"><a class=3D"button sub=
scribe-btn primary" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM=
6Ly9ibG9nLmNvc21vcy1pbnN0aXR1dGUub3JnL3N1YnNjcmliZT91dG1fc291cmNlPXBvc3QmdX=
RtX2NhbXBhaWduPWVtYWlsLWNoZWNrb3V0Jm5leHQ9aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZibG9nLmNvc21vc=
y1pbnN0aXR1dGUub3JnJTJGcCUyRnJhZGljYWwtZXRoaWNhbC1kaXNhZ3JlZW1lbnQtbGF0ZW50=
JnI9NXFxeXF4JnRva2VuPWV5SjFjMlZ5WDJsa0lqb3pORGN5TlRnNU9EVXNJbWxoZENJNk1UYzN=
PVEl3TkRrNE15d2laWGh3SWpveE56Z3hOemsyT1RnekxDSnBjM01pT2lKd2RXSXRNakl5TlRjNU=
5DSXNJbk4xWWlJNkltTm9aV05yYjNWMEluMC5XcHdYNVF0SjRDSFdieHNLeTRaY0FFa25oclpOd=
jlhNzhZLU1sN3p3UFRZIiwicCI6MTk4NDA1NTMwLCJzIjoyMjI1Nzk0LCJmIjp0cnVlLCJ1Ijoz=
NDcyNTg5ODUsImlhdCI6MTc3OTIwNDk4MywiZXhwIjoyMDk0NzgwOTgzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCI=
sInN1YiI6ImxpbmstcmVkaXJlY3QifQ.4KmNk8bPX2lPGKCSDXIFnrxTlZ7ZdTL4D0_28g5udvY=
?&utm_medium=3Demail&utm_source=3Dsubscribe-widget&utm_content=3D198405530"=
 style=3D"font-family: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI=
',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','S=
egoe UI Symbol';display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;cursor: pointe=
r;border: none;border-radius: 8px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 20px;font-we=
ight: 600;text-align: center;opacity: 1;outline: none;white-space: nowrap;t=
ext-decoration: none !important;margin: 0 auto;background-color: #25384c;co=
lor: #ffffff !important;padding: 12px 20px;height: auto;"><span style=3D"co=
lor: #ffffff;text-decoration: none;">Upgrade to paid</span></a></div></div>=
<p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-=
size: 16px;"></p><h3 class=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"position: relati=
ve;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-sy=
stem,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple=
 Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-=
font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-ap=
pearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance=
: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-heig=
ht: 1.16em;font-size: calc(1.375em * 1);">General track</h3><p style=3D"mar=
gin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Th=
ese two projects are from our General Track, which operates on a similar mo=
del to Emergent Ventures: $1-10k awards for builders working across our thr=
ee pillars of autonomy, truth-seeking, and decentralization.</p><h4 class=
=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Di=
splay',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'S=
egoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Em=
oji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiase=
d;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibili=
ty;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margi=
n: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: calc=
(1.125em * 1);">Spotting the next replication crisis</h4><p style=3D"margin=
: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In re=
cent years, large numbers of eye-catching studies have been found to be unr=
eplicable. This &#8216;replication crisis&#8217; hit psychology first, but =
has spread across a number of other academic disciplines. The current respo=
nse to replication failures has largely been to discover which individual s=
tudies don&#8217;t hold up. In the meantime, potentially decades of work co=
uld have been built on flawed foundations. AI research is a strong candidat=
e for the next crisis. Experiments are highly sensitive to small changes in=
 the setup, so the same experiment run twice can give you different answers=
</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;f=
ont-size: 16px;"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/8d3c850b-01da-45c=
c-a411-df419929831c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKG=
oFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">Rh=
ea Karty</a><span>, a pre-doctoral fellow at Harvard&#8217;s metareflection=
 lab, has built Replication Radar &#8211; a knowledge-graph tool that tries=
 to detect epistemic fragility at a field rather than a paper-level before =
the replication crisis breaks. The pipeline ingests papers, stores them as =
a graph, runs user queries, scores each paper, and visualizes the result. I=
t looks for signals such as tightly clustered author networks, citation rin=
gs, sudden citation bursts, institutional monoculture, whether retractions =
actually propagate to the papers that cited them, and small sample sizes, w=
ith optional LLM analysis on top.</span></p><div class=3D"captioned-image-c=
ontainer-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px au=
to;"><figure style=3D"width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;"><table class=3D"image-wr=
apper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data=
-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em=
;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td class=3D"content" =
align=3D"left" width=3D"1526" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"ima=
ge-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/56680a31-9=
fbf-4a53-871a-8aa4c9484c91?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWk=
lSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"position: relative;flex-direction: column;ali=
gn-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-deco=
ration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"><img class=3D"wide-image" data-attr=
s=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/pu=
blic/images/17d1ffc0-6c93-41a0-8f18-1c14396f05db_1526x1308.png&quot;,&quot;=
srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;=
:null,&quot;height&quot;:1308,&quot;width&quot;:1526,&quot;resizeWidth&quot=
;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1042940,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:nul=
l,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowT=
heFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:n=
ull,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot=
;:false}" alt=3D"" width=3D"550" height=3D"471.42857142857144" src=3D"https=
://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DNyH!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,=
fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fp=
ublic%2Fimages%2F17d1ffc0-6c93-41a0-8f18-1c14396f05db_1526x1308.png" style=
=3D"border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-inter=
polation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important=
;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-ali=
gn: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"margin: 0=
 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Rhea val=
idated the tool by showing that it could detect most of the papers involved=
 in the psychology replication crisis using only data from before it broke.=
</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;f=
ont-size: 16px;">The next step for the research is to move from papers to c=
oncepts, such as theories, effects, or methodological assumptions that indi=
vidual disciplines rely on heavily.</p><h4 class=3D"header-anchor-post" sty=
le=3D"position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headli=
ne,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,A=
rial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font=
-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: =
antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimiz=
elegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: r=
gb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: calc(1.125em * 1);">Discovering=
 latent reasoning</h4><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);l=
ine-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Reasoning models are increasingly =
trained with reinforcement learning, and often perform much better on diffi=
cult reasoning tasks. But what is this training actually changing inside th=
e model? Prior </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/a305655c-6ef=
8-4609-94a4-3476bc21607b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklS=
u8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline=
;">work</a><span> suggests that Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewa=
rds (a crucial post-training technique for most reasoning models) mainly re=
arranges probabilities over reasoning paths the base model could already pr=
oduce, nudging it at a few important decision points. But this doesn&#8217;=
t fully explain how fine-tuned models hold long chains of reasoning togethe=
r from start to finish.</span></p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb=
(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><a href=3D"https://substack.=
com/redirect/bfcb003d-dce7-458e-a871-14638614f907?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h=
9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);t=
ext-decoration: underline;">Hunar Batra</a><span>, a DPhil researcher at Ox=
ford, studies whether reasoning fine-tuning does something more global: reo=
rganising the model&#8217;s internal dynamics into a latent reasoning polic=
y. Instead of only changing which next token the model prefers, training ma=
y help the model enter, maintain, and switch between coherent internal mode=
s as reasoning unfolds. In written chains of thought, we often see shifts b=
etween setting up the problem, retrieving facts, planning, computing, check=
ing the answer, and producing the final response. The question is whether t=
hese shifts also appear inside the model&#8217;s activations.</span></p><di=
v class=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-=
height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"width: 100%;margin: 0 aut=
o;"><table class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D=
"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;=
"></td><td class=3D"content" align=3D"left" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text-al=
ign: center;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://sub=
stack.com/redirect/14fafeff-d5a8-4d10-b84c-fd1faccef09b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF=
4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"position: relati=
ve;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height=
: auto;border: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"><img c=
lass=3D"wide-image" data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-p=
ost-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6111bb62-e95e-43fa-a2ee-d7609dce2f=
63_2048x1058.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quo=
t;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:752,&quot;width&quot;=
:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:n=
ull,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quo=
t;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect=
&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;off=
set&quot;:false}" alt=3D"" width=3D"550" height=3D"284.0659340659341" src=
=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6VPn!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_a=
uto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaw=
s.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6111bb62-e95e-43fa-a2ee-d7609dce2f63_2048x1058.pn=
g" style=3D"border: none !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-=
ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !i=
mportant;max-width: 100% !important;margin: 0 auto;"></a></td><td style=3D"=
text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"m=
argin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">=
To test this, the work models reasoning as a system that switches between d=
istinct modes. It looks at the internal representations of base and reasoni=
ng-trained Llama and Qwen models sentence by sentence, using a contrastive =
method to identify what regime the model is operating in at each step.</p><=
p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-s=
ize: 16px;text-align: justify">These regimes are compared against eight def=
ined reasoning stages, including planning, computation, verification, and a=
nswer emission. Reasoning-trained models show clearer internal structure th=
an base models: more persistent modes, more structured transitions, and str=
onger specialization around recognizable reasoning functions. These detecte=
d latent reasoning policies can be used to steer a base model toward behavi=
ours seen in reasoning-trained models. On hard problems the base model prev=
iously failed, this raised performance to 60% on Qwen 1.5B and 46% on Llama=
 8B.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26=
px;font-size: 16px;text-align: justify">Hunar&#8217;s follow-up work is on =
reward hacking. She&#8217;s building test environments that elicit reward-h=
acking behaviour during RL training, better monitors that catch it by traci=
ng what drove the reward, and post-training methods that reduce the damage =
from misspecified rewards. Early results suggest this catches forms of dece=
ption that current approaches, which only inspect a model&#8217;s written r=
easoning, tend to miss.</p><h3 class=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"positi=
on: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui=
,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-se=
rif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bol=
d;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;=
-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;=
appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55)=
;line-height: 1.16em;font-size: calc(1.375em * 1);text-align: justify">Trut=
h-seeking</h3><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-heig=
ht: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Alongside our general grants, we run a tra=
ck focused specifically on AI and truth-seeking, in partnership with the </=
span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/f6a0f6d7-d070-4f8c-9060-b8b1d=
9b97811?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA=
" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">Foundation for=
 Individual Rights and Expression</a><span> (FIRE) &#8211; a non-partisan o=
rganization that fights for free speech and free thought.</span></p><h4 cla=
ss=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro =
Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,=
'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI =
Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialia=
sed;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibi=
lity;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;mar=
gin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: ca=
lc(1.125em * 1);">Normalizing radical disagreement</h4><p style=3D"margin: =
0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The Con=
versational System for Intense Disagreement and Ethical Reflection (Conside=
r) is a conversational AI platform for the discussion of &#8220;radical mor=
al disagreements&#8221;, produced by the Design Bioethics Laboratory at the=
 University of Oxford. These are disagreements on topics that are so polari=
zing and emotionally sensitive that people feel unable to discuss them, eve=
n with people who might agree, out of fear of social consequences.</p><p st=
yle=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size:=
 16px;">The user picks a topic from a list determined by a prior study and =
then states their opinion. The LLM then asks clarifying questions and works=
 with the user to create a summary. The user then selects a &#8220;disagree=
ability level&#8221; and then engages in a 10 minute discussion, with the L=
LM taking the opposing side. At the end, it provides feedback on various as=
pects of the user&#8217;s moral beliefs, as well as areas of agreement and =
disagreement between the user and AI.</p><div class=3D"captioned-image-cont=
ainer-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;margin: 32px auto;=
"><figure style=3D"width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;"><table class=3D"image-wrapp=
er" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" data-co=
mponent-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-padding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;">=
<tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><td class=3D"content" ali=
gn=3D"left" width=3D"1398" style=3D"text-align: center;"><a class=3D"image-=
link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/6344455e-bf97=
-45a6-9e58-a654073f65b8?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu=
8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"position: relative;flex-direction: column;align-=
items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;border: none;text-decorat=
ion: none;display: block;margin: 0;"><img class=3D"wide-image" data-attrs=
=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/pub=
lic/images/2958165a-cea4-4565-a41e-bc2d3c546519_1398x786.png&quot;,&quot;sr=
cNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:n=
ull,&quot;height&quot;:786,&quot;width&quot;:1398,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:n=
ull,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quo=
t;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot=
;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&=
quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" alt=3D"" widt=
h=3D"550" height=3D"309.2274678111588" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image=
/fetch/$s_!EO5B!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/htt=
ps%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2958165=
a-cea4-4565-a41e-bc2d3c546519_1398x786.png" style=3D"border: none !importan=
t;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;hei=
ght: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 100% !importan=
t;margin: 0 auto;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td></tr></t=
body></table></figure></div><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55=
,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The team also held a 16-person sem=
inar with experts from philosophy, computer science, political science, and=
 psychology.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-he=
ight: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The discussion covered tensions such as whethe=
r exposure to disagreement actually produces belief revision, how to keep t=
he tool complementary to rather than displacing human conversation, and how=
 to handle the fact that even the experts instinctively tried to win argume=
nts against the platform rather than use it for reflection. These findings =
will feed back into the next iteration of the tool.</p><h4 class=3D"header-=
anchor-post" style=3D"position: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-app=
le-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Ro=
boto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe=
 UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-=
font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-app=
earance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.=
625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: calc(1.125em * =
1);">Breaking open the black box</h4><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: =
rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The industry standard for=
 safety monitoring is reading a model&#8217;s chain of thought and flagging=
 unsafe reasoning with another AI as a judge. But a capable model can produ=
ce a clean-looking chain of thought that doesn&#8217;t reflect what&#8217;s=
 actually driving its decisions &#8211; known as unfaithfulness. Giovanni M=
aria Occhipinti, a visiting researcher at the University of Oxford, aims to=
 enhance transparency through a white-box approach.</p><p style=3D"margin: =
0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The fra=
mework has two components.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,=
55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Probes are lightweight classifie=
rs that learn to tell faithful and unfaithful reasoning apart by looking at=
 the model&#8217;s internal states. Training works by feeding the model adv=
ersarial prompts that induce unfaithful reasoning, using an LLM judge to la=
bel each case, and capturing the internal patterns that correspond to each.=
 The probe learns the signature that separates the two. At inference time y=
ou run a new prompt through the model, pull out those internal patterns, an=
d check them against the probe.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rg=
b(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Steering vectors work in th=
e same space. They&#8217;re adjustments you can apply to the model&#8217;s =
internal activity to nudge it toward more transparent reasoning.</p><p styl=
e=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 1=
6px;">The probes achieved over 90 percent accuracy, while the steering vect=
ors restored readable reasoning in up to 46 percent of cases.</p><div class=
=3D"captioned-image-container-static" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height:=
 26px;margin: 32px auto;"><figure style=3D"width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;"><ta=
ble class=3D"image-wrapper" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" c=
ellpadding=3D"0" data-component-name=3D"Image2ToDOMStatic" style=3D"mso-pad=
ding-alt: 1em 0 1.6em;"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align: center;"></td><=
td class=3D"content" align=3D"left" width=3D"1000" style=3D"text-align: cen=
ter;"><a class=3D"image-link" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://substack.co=
m/redirect/0384724e-3bbf-4c59-a0c6-8ac06d538e50?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9d=
EDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=3D"position: relative;flex-=
direction: column;align-items: center;padding: 0;width: auto;height: auto;b=
order: none;text-decoration: none;display: block;margin: 0;"><img class=3D"=
wide-image" data-attrs=3D"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-medi=
a.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3dd7ce1f-8ca9-4250-a88a-f415130ed09c_1000x=
1282.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,=
&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1282,&quot;width&quot;:1000,&=
quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&qu=
ot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;below=
TheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:=
null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quo=
t;:false}" alt=3D"" width=3D"550" height=3D"705.1" src=3D"https://substackc=
dn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IycT!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressi=
ve:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimag=
es%2F3dd7ce1f-8ca9-4250-a88a-f415130ed09c_1000x1282.png" style=3D"border: n=
one !important;vertical-align: middle;display: block;-ms-interpolation-mode=
: bicubic;height: auto;margin-bottom: 0;width: auto !important;max-width: 1=
00% !important;margin: 0 auto;"></a></td><td style=3D"text-align: center;">=
</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;col=
or: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>The </span><a h=
ref=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/77023793-bbf5-4731-9bca-2d7ea46cd5d1?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-HyoA" style=
=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">paper</a><span> has b=
een accepted as an oral presentation at ICLR 2026 and Gio is looking for fu=
nders and collaborators to take it forward.</span></p><div style=3D"font-si=
ze: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"margin: 32px 0;padding: 0;height:=
 1px;background: rgb(0,0,0,.1);border: none;"></div><p style=3D"margin: 0 0=
 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">We&#8217;l=
l have more to say on future grant waves and how you can get involved in th=
e coming weeks. The best way to keep up to ensure you don&#8217;t miss any =
opportunities to share your work or ideas is to subscribe below.</p><div st=
yle=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"margin: 32px 0;padd=
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=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16=
px;"><em><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/074ea2f1-e8e6-4759-a43e-a=
cc848f6204b?j=3DeyJ1IjoiNXFxeXF4In0.h9dEDbGj64cTNudluPwbMYWklSu8UKGoFv6eWS-=
HyoA" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">Cosmos Ins=
titute</a><span> is the Academy for Philosopher-Builders, technologists bui=
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id rgb(0,0,0,.1);min-width: 100%;"><tbody><tr height=3D"16"><td height=3D"1=
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